BEIJING -- Perhaps more than any other nation, China is having a tough time
giving a clear answer to the question posed bluntly by a terror-stricken US:
Are you with us or not?
The nation's leaders expressed their strong condolences for the September 11
suicide hijack attacks, but that was the easy part. They've also condemned
terrorism and vowed in general, flowery terms to support international
efforts to squelch it.
But even as Bush insists there's no grey area, the Chinese see lots of it.
After years of carefully developing its alliances and positioning itself as
the focal point of Asian politics and economics, China faces a suddenly
reshuffled world order in which a favorite neighbor, Pakistan, is about to
permit a US military presence on its soil.
This is hardly a scenario China could have predicted, but officials find
themselves unable to demand the US stay out of their backyard if evidence
shows Afghanistan guest Osama bin Laden masterminded the horrific slaughter
of thousands in New York, Pennsylvania and Washington.
As a result, the thrust of Chinese input into the response is to urge caution
and call for the outcome to be orchestrated by the United Nations, not a
US-led coalition. That message is likely the one Chinese Foreign Minister
Tang Jiaxuan gives US Secretary of State Colin Powell when they meet sometime
in the next few days.
"Going through the UN would give China veto power in whatever happened," said
Rajan Menon, international studies expert at Lehigh University in
Pennsylvania. "But I don't think the US will allow the Russians and the
Chinese to pick apart their plans here."
China has plenty to worry about with US at war just across its borders,
especially if that war takes on an anti-Islam bent that angers its large
Muslim separatist minority in the far northwest Chinese region of Xinjiang.
Those Muslims, of an ethnicity known as the Uygurs, have engineered bus
explosions and other violent acts to support their separatist efforts, and
some are rumored to have spent time in terrorist training camps run by the
ruling Taliban in Afghanistan.
"China must be concerned about a backlash in radical Islam and a spillover
effect of refugees from Afghanistan if there's a war there," said Dru
Gladney, political science professor at the University of Hawaii and author
of "Chinese Muslims, Ethnic Nationalism and the People's Republic."
Also disconcerting to China is a Pakistan-US alliance that forces China to
suddenly worry about US influence from its western front.
"China has a fear that the US is trying to encircle it," said Evan Medeiros,
a fellow at the Monterery Institute of International Studies in Monterery,
Calif. "The US has improved its relations with South Korea and Japan and made
efforts through arms sales with Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore to gain
influence on China's other sides, too. The western flank was the side it
figured it was safe on."
Still, as disconcerting as the situation may be for China, there are some
positive outcomes that could come if the US stays in the region only long
enough to snuff out terrorism and bring those behind the Sept. 11 events to
justice.
Should China be seen as cooperative with the US, for example, it could prove
healthy for Sino-US relations. Already, with the US and its people now
focused on terrorism, they may stop obsessing over the so-called China threat.
"I hope my government actually gets involved in this coalition to fight
against international terrorism because it's a good opportunity for China to
improve Sino-US relations and polish its international image," said Zhu Feng,
director of the International Security Program at Peking University.
That could be a positive outcome, but it also may lead the US to overlook
human rights abuses, some fear. China may even use the world's obsession with
terrorism as an excuse to further crackdown on the Uygurs.
"They characterize all unrest in Xinjiang as terrorist or separatist even
when it isn't," said Sophia Woodman, research director for the New York-based
group Human Rights in China. "Theres been some contradictory interpretations
of the emphasis of (Foreign Ministry spokesman) Zhu Bangzao said on these
issues, and some people interpreted that he was trying to link China's battle
against its ethnic minorities to the global anti-terrorism struggle."