KINGMAN, Ariz. - It seems fitting that the most
prominent resident to emerge from this dusty desert outpost is
Andy Devine, a Western actor who was best known for playing helpmates
to the likes of John Wayne and Roy Rogers.
Fitting because Kingman, an area of just 40,000 people, is
poised to become the freshest face in the Sun Belt's growth
spurt. But even as Kingman rises, the question remains whether
it will become a star in its own right or, like its famous son,
is destined to be a sidekick to the region's flashier metropolises,
particularly Las Vegas.
Two major developers based in Nevada - Rhodes Homes and the
Mardian Group - have won approval to build communities in the
Kingman area that, by 2040, could have a combined 80,000 new
homes.
The mayor of Kingman, John Salem, predicts that would mean
an additional 150,000 residents, a conservative estimate by
other accounts.
Driving this development is not so much that the world has
discovered Kingman, but that the Las Vegas region is starting
to run out of land and water to sustain its growth.
A $240 million, four-lane bridge across the Colorado River
is due to replace the two-lane road that now crosses the Hoover
Dam between Arizona and Nevada in 2010, making travel between
the areas much easier.
When that happens, Mr. Salem predicted, it will be difficult
to keep what he calls "the Kingman secret" quiet any longer.
"It's gorgeous here, we don't have any natural disasters,
no forest fires, no hurricanes, tornadoes or floods, good schools,
lots of cheap land, the cost of living's down, we have proximity
to the Colorado River, to Flagstaff, to Las Vegas, to Phoenix,"
said the mayor, who won election in May on a platform of being
friendlier to developers.
"We're right in the middle of everything," he continued. "There's
going to be quite a few more people looking to Kingman once
the dam bypass goes through."
There is also, so it seems, "much more water than anyone really
realized," said Chris Stevens, an executive for Rhodes Homes,
whose Pravada development west of Kingman in an unincorporated
area known as Golden Valley is expected to include 33,000 homes
on about 5,000 acres.
Preliminary studies by hydrologists for the Mardian Group
and for Rhodes Homes have convinced the Arizona Department of
Water Resources that there is a 100-year water supply for the
developments.
Leonard Mardian is particularly bullish on the idea that many
of his residents will make what he says will be a one-hour drive
to work in central Las Vegas from the Ranch at White Hills,
the first of his three planned communities about 30 miles southeast
of the Hoover Dam and 40 miles north of Kingman.
Mr. Mardian, the owner of 47,000 acres in northwest Arizona,
is not concerned about fuel prices; he said he believed that
people would soon switch to cars powered by alternative fuel
anyway.
Mr. Mardian said he planned to sell homes at one-third the
cost of those in southern Nevada.
Both Mr. Mardian and Mr. Stevens say their companies are undeterred
by the weak housing market, even as Las Vegas and Phoenix suffer
some of the nation's highest foreclosure rates and steepest
home-value declines. Las Vegas in particular, they note, is
on the cusp of yet another boom, with 50,000 hotel rooms expected
to be added to the resort corridor by 2012.
"We can't say we're in a bad cycle right now so we should
just stop what we're doing," said Mr. Stevens, whose company
has about 500 $2,000 deposits on the first wave of Pravada houses
and has billboards advertising houses starting around $140,000.
"We can't do that. You have to just recognize that we're going
to go through down cycles and up cycles."
The anticipated Vegas boom translates into an additional 113,500
new resort-related jobs alone, according to calculations by
Bill Lerner, a Deutsche Bank gaming stock analyst.
"There's going to be another million people here in the next
10 years," Mr. Mardian predicted. "Where are they going to live?"
For Kingman residents, the changes to come are drastic and,
in some quarters, unwelcome.
Once a cherished stop along U.S. 66, the city became a mere
fueling point for many when Interstate 40 opened in the mid-1970s.
The population began rising in the 1990s as residents like Earl
Kemp, 77, fled densely populated cities for a rural lifestyle;
the Census Bureau says it grew 35.8 percent since 2000.
Now Mr. Kemp, who moved from San Diego a decade ago and lives
a mile from the edge of the planned Pravada project, is among
those angered by the coming tsunami of development. "It's much
too big," Mr. Kemp said. "I was attracted to this area for the
peace and solitude, but peace and solitude no longer exists
with 80,000 people living a mile from me."
Mr. Kemp and many of his neighbors also fear Pravada will
use so much water from the local aquifer that they will have
to dig their own wells deeper.
Sandy Fabritz-Whitney, deputy director of the Arizona Department
of Water Resources, acknowledged that that could happen, but
she said that "there's nothing in the state law that protects
them" from that eventuality because Rhodes is not planning to
dig any deeper than legally allowed.
Rhodes comes in for particularly harsh criticism by local
activists because the company promised years ago when it began
buying up land that it would "be respectful of the environment,"
said Denise Bensusan, a member of the Mohave County Land Subdivision
Committee that is rewriting the residential subdivision regulations
for the region. "They said they were going to use desert plants
and all this, but the first thing they did was to put in huge
palm trees that take so much water just to announce their arrival."
Ms. Bensusan is especially alarmed by the fact that the state
gave Rhodes and Mardian their water approvals without waiting
for the results of a study of the area's ground water supply
that is now under way by the United States Geological Survey.
But others shrug off such concerns. The developments mean
construction jobs, increased property and sales tax revenues
and the potential for big-box stores to open here so that local
residents no longer have to drive 40 miles west to Bullhead
City, Ariz., for, say, a Best Buy.
Mr. Salem said FedEx and Wal-Mart were building distribution
centers in the Kingman area to take advantage of two major roads
that cross here: Interstate 40, which stretches from California
to North Carolina, and U.S. 93, which links Las Vegas to Phoenix.
And Westar, a developer based in California, announced in
July that it planned to build a 37-acre, 380,000-square-foot
shopping center and office complex three miles north of Pravada.
"There's still lots of open space," said Steve Wagner, a real
estate agent who moved to Kingman from Southern California six
years ago. "We're not yet condo on condo, neighbor on neighbor
with five-foot easements. I mean, it's going to come, but it's
not here today."
The mayor believes that with careful planning, Kingman can
maintain its own character and become a destination unto itself.
"There's going to be growth here no matter what; it's just
how we handle it," said Mr. Salem, 44, who moved here in 1992
from Phoenix, where he was raised.
"I don't think it's going be anything on the scale of Phoenix
or Las Vegas, and we don't want that," Mr. Salem said. "But
Kingman has unlimited marketing potential for whatever different
people want to do within the city. People will want to come
here."