LAS VEGAS: There are but a paltry 22 delegates
at stake on Saturday in Nevada's Democratic caucuses. In the state's
largest region, Clark County, organizers say that attendance by
a mere 1,000 of the more than 250,000 registered Democrats would
be considered record-breaking. And the outcome is such a forgone
conclusion that top supporters of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean
and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards are already conceding a likely
loss to front-runner John Kerry.
And yet, if the weekend's contest is seemingly inconsequential
and entirely predictable, appearances here by both Kerry and
Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie in the days
leading into it reflect that the nation's fastest-growing state
is poised to play its most significant role ever in a presidential
election.
Historically, Nevada has gone Republican in every presidential
race since 1964 except for Bill Clinton's victories in 1992
and 1996, when third-party candidate Ross Perot siphoned off
votes from the GOP nominees. Yet in another nod to how painfully
close the 2000 election was - Republican George W. Bush beat
Democrat Al Gore here by 3.6 percent of the vote in Nevada and
won nationally by one electoral vote - neither campaign is taking
any chances on the Silver State's five electoral votes.
The state's now considered a toss-up, largely because it is
evenly divided between registered Republicans and Democrats
and has some of the nation's fastest-growing populations of
both Republican retirees and Democratic union workers. Plus,
some observers think President George W. Bush will be harmed
by his support of placing the national nuclear waste repository
at Yucca Mountain near Las Vegas, seen as a unique wedge issue
that could bring fence-sitting Republicans to support a Democratic
candidate.
All this means more attention from the parties and the candidates
than ever before, pundits and campaign operatives insist. Already,
several Democrat-aligned special interest groups are focusing
on the state. The liberal MoveOn.org, for instance, bought local
TV advertising time during the Super Bowl in Nevada and four
other states to air an anti-Bush commercial that the NFL and
CBS refused to broadcast nationally during the game.
Kerry is scheduled to appear at a rally at a high school and
then a reception at a private home tonight, followed by a visit
to the Clark County caucus meetings on Saturday. He sent former
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Henry Cisneros here
earlier this week to address a Hispanic business group in Las
Vegas.
"Nevada is a major battleground state in November," said Billy
Rogers, state coordinator for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's
campaign, who admits he expects Dean to show poorly in Nevada
on Saturday. "If Democrats can win Nevada, they're in pretty
good shape in the national election. It is extremely important."
The Republicans clearly think it's important, too. The Bush-Cheney
2004 campaign now has a headquarters in Las Vegas, the first
time a Republican ticket has opened such an office in the state
since Reagan-Bush did so in 1984. Gillespie's visit on Thursday,
at which he rallied Bush-Cheney campaign workers and then flew
to Reno to speak at a dinner, is more evidence of an increased
GOP preoccupation with the state. Vice President Dick Cheney
was in Las Vegas last month to raise $100,000 for U.S. Rep.
Jon Porter, R-Nev., and former President George Bush spoke in
Reno in late January at the Safari Club International convention.
"We've become a lot more relevant after what happened in the
2000 election, and both Democrats and Republicans are starting
to account for the importance of electoral votes in smaller
states," said Republican activist Steve Wark, who is running
anti-gay activist Richard Ziser's campaign to unseat Sen. Harry
Reid, D-Nev. "They're not taking any votes for granted. Obviously
you're not going to spend as much time in Nevada as you would
in Florida, but you're going to see more money and a lot more
organizational effort coming to Nevada."
The rise of Nevada as a presidential player also denotes the
fall of the stigma around being associated with a state known
famously for sin, gambling and debauchery. Although no candidates
will be seen meandering through a casino chatting with blackjack
dealers and scantily clad cocktail waitresses the way they would
be seen engaging a lift operator on a car factory floor in Detroit,
the lure of hitting the Vegas fundraising jackpot is as hypnotic
as a spinning slot machine reel is to high-rolling morals czar
Bill Bennett.
"That disappeared a long time ago," said Las Vegas Sun columnist
Jon Ralston, the state's most prominent political pundit. "They
discovered the gaming money is much more important than the
image problem of coming to Sin City Central, especially now
that there's gaming all over the country."
Kerry, who is expected to stay tonight at the posh Mandalay
Bay Hotel & Casino on the Las Vegas Strip, is likely to harp
on the Yucca Mountain issue. Bush fast-tracked the site and
pushed it through Congress in 2002 after promising during the
2000 campaign to wait until studies were completed on its structural
viability, but Kerry has consistently voted against the dump
for decades.
"People are starting to understand that the president can
kill Yucca Mountain and that Bush lied to Nevadans," Nevada
Democratic Party spokesman Jon Summers said. "They're seeing
there's hope that a Democratic president, with a stroke of a
pen, can end the Yucca Mountain project."
Thus far, though, the Yucca issue, while important to Nevadans,
has rarely turned many votes in presidential races, Ralston
said. At the same time, Ralston noted, Bush has come to Nevada
only once since his election and offered no local media access
during that appearance last November so as to avoid tough questions
about the change in his Yucca stance.
First, of course, Kerry needs to actually win the delegates
necessary for the nomination, so part of this visit is aimed
at ensuring his momentum remains intact
"Once you're on a roll like this, you can't trip," said Democratic
activist Robert Forbuss, Nevada finance chairman for Kerry's
campaign. "If you trip in a state like Nevada, it becomes big
news. He can't win Tennessee and Virginia one day, then fall
here the next."
After that, Forbuss predicted, "Both of them -- Bush and Kerry
-- will be back in NV to get the vote and also to get the financial
support from the community. We should see a lot more of that
than ever."
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